Beginner's guide
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Prices reflect collective probability and if you're right, you profit.
Pick a market
Browse questions about real-world events: sports, politics, crypto, and more. Each market has two sides: Yes and No.
Choose your side
Tap Yes if you think the event will happen, No if you don't. The price shown (e.g. 65¢) is the market's implied probability 65% chance of Yes.
Set your amount
Enter how much you want to invest. Your potential winnings are shown immediately, every share pays out $1 if your prediction is correct.
Collect your winnings
When the event resolves, winning shares pay $1 each. Lose and they pay $0. You can also sell your position at any time before resolution.
Interactive example
Will Argentina win the FIFA World Cup 2026?
At 65¢ per share, the market implies a 65% chance Argentina wins. If you think it's higher, buying Yes is positive expected value.
Price = Probability
A Yes share trading at 70¢ means the crowd believes there's a 70% chance the event happens. Prices shift in real time as new information arrives.
Limit vs Market orders
Market orders fill instantly at the best available price. Limit orders let you set the exact price you're willing to pay — useful when you think the market is mispriced.
Early exit
You don't have to wait for resolution. Sell your shares any time to lock in profit or cut losses. The market is always liquid as long as other traders are active.
Resolution
Once the event concludes, an independent oracle determines the outcome. Correct shares redeem at $1. Incorrect shares expire worthless.
Ready to make your first trade?
Start with a small amount — even $1 teaches you more than reading.
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